AI Overviews vs. Blue Links: Which Really Drives Clicks?

Over the past year, AI Overviews have quietly reshaped Google’s search results—and naturally, SEOs started asking: Are these things actually drawing clicks? Or are they just pushing everything else down the page?

We were curious, too, so our team dug into the data. Over a few months, we analyzed tens of thousands of search queries across dozens of industries to see how links inside AI Overviews compare to classic blue links in terms of click-through rate (CTR).

Here's what we found.

What’s More Valuable: AI Overview or Blue Links?

It’s the simple answer is the one you’d expect from any SEO: Well, it depends.

Ranking first in an AI Overview performs about the same as ranking 5.9 in a traditional organic listing (somewhere between the 5th and 6th position).

That’s not bad—but really, it shows that AI overviews haven’t fundamentally changed the playing field for how websites gather actual users. A top 3 SERP ranking still delivers significantly stronger CTRs. Even the best-positioned link in an AI Overview can’t yet match the engagement levels of the most visible blue links.

That said, AI Overview inclusion isn’t without obvious value. For one, it still is providing the value of a first-page blue link. It can also support brand credibility and visibility—especially on commercial-intent queries. But if you’re measuring performance in raw clicks, the top-ranking blue links continue to perform best.

Our Method: How We Found Our Results

Our team pulled data from over 20,000 ranking queries, spanning industries such as Automotive repair, eCommerce, Education, Fitness, Healthcare, Manufacturing, SaaS, and many more. If that sounds like a wide array of industries—you aren’t wrong! We wanted broad subject coverage to balance Google's varying treatment of content across sectors. Health-related content, in particular, is more tightly governed by E-E-A-T and quality thresholds, which can affect their visibility in AI Overviews.

From that pool, we closely analyzed 200+ unique SERPs with AI Overviews, tracking:

• Where a domain appeared in the Overview

• The domain’s ranking position in traditional blue links

• CTR, impressions, and clicks from Google Search Console

In cases where a link appeared multiple times, we only counted the first appearance to avoid inflating performance.

Timeframe: February–April 2025. This three-month window captured data from before and after Google’s March 2025 Core Update, helping us average out turbulence and any potential algorithmic overcorrections that may be undone at a later point.

Tracking Expected CTR 

For both AI Overview and traditional organic listing positions, we chose to track expected CTR rather than raw averages since this let us isolate the relative performance, without the distortion caused by positional advantages or outlier queries. In short, expected CTR gave us a cleaner, more controlled way to measure true engagement potential.

How AI Overview Position Compares to Traditional Rankings:

As the data demonstrates, appearing in the Overview gets some visibility, but it’s not a top-of-page magic bullet for gathering clicks. 

3 Major Insights from the Data

1. AI Overview Links: Useful, but Not Dominant

The first link in an AI Overview has value—it contributes to visibility and perceived authority—but it isn’t a consistent traffic driver. Especially when compared to high-ranking blue links, it simply doesn’t generate as many clicks.

SEOs should focus on the same, effective on-page and off-page strategies to ensure pages rank on the first page of SERPs. They should also do their best with on-page optimizations to ensure certain high-value paragraphs have a chance to rank for AI Overviews (and PAAs).  

2. Users Still Scroll

Even with AI answers front and center, users still scroll. Particularly in research-heavy contexts or high-stakes decisions (e.g., health, finance, products), users want to vet sources—and that behavior favors the traditional organic listings.

3. The Bottom Is Just That

Whether it’s the 10th result in the Overview or the 10th link on the page, visibility falls off sharply below the fold. Users engage less and click less. SERP position still matters.

Bonus Insight: Don’t Trust Everything You See Online About Expected CTR

For years, we’ve seen some high-ranking sites making eye-opening statements about expected CTR for the top organic results. Some suggest that, for the top organic ranking on Google, you should expect a 40+% CTR. 

That’s…likely going to set you up for disappointment. 

While a 40+% CTR might be true for some branded or navigational queries—but for general informational or commercial queries, our data shows CTR is far more modest, often ranging from 12–18% for top organic placements.